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Welcome > Local Info >
Market Conditions Blog 2009 ...
  
 State of the Market 2009 -By Margorie Grime January 15, 2010

2009 ended up being a remarkable year, considering the turmoil in the financial markets. In the Headwaters Region, which includes Orangeville, Dufferin, Caledon and Erin, the above Chart shows that there were fewer listings (blue lines) in 2009 (vs 2008).
Sales (red lines) were very slow in Nov., Dec. and Jan. and then in Feb. the market took off. The usual Summer slow down did not occur in 2009 with July recording one of the best months for sales — and sales were strong even into November.
Many factors contributed to the healthy real estate market including: record Low Interest Rates; First Time Buyers re-entering the market; Realistic Sellers and Canada’s Healthy Financial Institutions.
Average Selling Prices
at the end of 2009 were up marginally in Orangeville +3.11% and Erin +1.22% and down slightly in Caledon –2.72% and Dufferin –3.57%.
2010 is expected to be an excellent year for real estate. Good interest rates. Rates will rise. (Next month I will have information on Mortgages along with some strategies.) Prices are expected to remain stable.
If you are looking to move in 2010 just give us a call and we’ll coach you on how to best position yourself for a smooth move...and if we can assist family or friends, please pass our name along...we are NEVER too busy! All the best to you and yours in 2010.
Statistics from TREB and Market Watch
  Buy Now and Avoid the Harmonized Sales Tax -By Dwight Trafford The Mortgage Centre 519-942-3333 November 19, 2009
Interested in saving tax money? The only foolproof way to avoid the HST is to buy BEFORE next summer. And as it turns out, that’s a great idea anyway. Prices still haven’t reached their previous highs in most areas and interest rates are near historic lows.
What is Harmonized Sales Tax? Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) is a new tax the Ontario government PLANS to implement beginning July 1, 2010. This new tax will take the place of our current GST and PST by combine the GST (5%) with the PST (8%) to create a single tax (13%).
Why is this important to consumers? Currently many products and services are subject to GST charges only. Implementing the HST will mean that almost all charges will now pay the full 13% sales tax.
What does this mean if you buying a new home? Presently, new home purchases are subject to GST only (5%) but starting from July 1, 2010 all new home purchasers will be paying 13% HST! For example, if you are buying a $250,000 home, you will be paying $20,000 more after the HST takes effect. To top it all off, purchasing a new or resale home will cost more because all service fees involved in the purchase of a home (appraisal, legal, home inspector, landscaping, renovating, etc.) will now be subject to HST and not just GST!

State of the Market October 2009 -By Margorie Grime November 9, 2009

HOME SALES REBOUND IN 2009: As of October 31, 2009 we have recorded 1965 home sales in the Headwaters Region compared to 1853 in all of 2008. From the above chart you can see the effects of the financial meltdown with the unusually low sales in Nov and Dec 2008, carrying into Jan and Feb. Momentum started to build with a backlog of First Time Buyers making their way into the market in March with a steady number of sales recorded right through to October 2009. Our record year of 2007 recorded 2355 sales. If 2009 November and December Sales reflect the years 2005 to 2007, 2009 will be the second best year ever. That is quite a recovery—thanks to low interest rates, government bail-outs, lending policies at Canadian banks, First Time Buyers and Move-Up Buyers are returning to the market.











 
Positive News in the Real Estate Market -By Margorie Grime September 28, 2009
Ontario—Market Riding Higher
According to the Royal Bank: “Ontario’s housing market has been on quite a roller-coaster ride in the past year—going from a gentle descent late last summer to a plunge during the fall and winter, then to an impressive surge since the spring. The gyrations of the market have reflected the swings in the economy and the effects of the financial crisis. However, the current upturn can be largely attributed to solid improvements in affordability in the province. …[Measures of affordability] are now below historical averages, indicating that the costs of homeownership have reached attractive levels in the province. While communities continue to face tough economic prospects that are holding back local demand, the general tone of the market has clearly turned positive. This is being reflected in notable gains in housing prices in recent months."
An affordability reading of 50% means homeownership costs including mortgage payments, utilities and property tax take up 50% of a typical householders monthly pretax income. The lower the measure, the more affordable home ownership is. The higher the measure the more costly.
2nd Quarter Affordability indicies: Standard Condo 26.9% Standard Townhouse 31.5% Det. Bungalow 39.1% Det. 2 Storey 44.4%.
NEW HOMES: Activity to Rebound in Second Half of 2009 and in 2010 Housing
Housing starts are expected to rebound in the second half of 2009 and will reach 141,900 for the year. Starts will increase to 150,300 for 2010, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) third quarter Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition* report. The overall forecast totals for housing starts remain unchanged from the second quarter release.
"Economic uncertainty and lower levels of employment tempered new housing construction in the first half of this year", said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC. "In the second half of 2009 and in 2010, we expect housing markets across Canada to strengthen."
Improving activity on the resale market and lower inventory levels in both the new and existing home markets are expected to prompt buildrs to increase residential construction.
Existing home sales, as measured by the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®)1, have rebounded strongly since January and will reach 420,700 units in 2009 and remain close to that level at 419,400 units in 2010. The average MLS® price is expected to moderate to $301,400 in 2009 and to increase to $306,300 in 2010.
Articles adapted from CMHC AND RBC. Emphasis and italics mine.
 
State of the Market July 2009 -By Margorie Grime August 11, 2009

In July 2009, Orangeville reported a record 82 sales, up 100 per cent from July 2008 (41 sales reported) and the highest number of sales since January 2005! All areas recorded higher July ’09 sales than July 08. Caledon sales were up 29% (84 July 2009 vs 65 July 2008); Dufferin sales were up 21% (40 vs 33); Erin sales were marginally up 5% (39 vs 37). A remarkable recovery (particularly for Orangeville, Caledon and Dufferin) and unusual for July as typically sales slow in the summer months.
Perhaps, some of the factors that have contributed to this phenomenon are:
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More families holidaying from home and having a look/see at real estate;
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Unseasonably wet, cool weather – what better time to house hunt;
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Likely the lowest interest we will see in the foreseeable future;
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Renewed confidence in the economy;
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Release of pent up demand for those who have been sitting on the sidelines; and
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Re-emergence of the move up buyer into the market. The move-up buyer creates a more stable market as for each sale/purchase, there are further sales/purchases.
Here are some more interesting charts for your information:








We at the Grime Team recorded 20 sales – our best month ever! Thank-you to our esteemed friends, family and valued clients. And, by the way, we are NEVER too busy to look after any referral you would kindly send our way.
 State of the Market June 2009 -By Margorie Grime July 10, 2009

From the lows of December 2008 and January 2009 we are seeing a healthy rise in home sales in all districts, especially Caledon which has had the best June since 2005. Dufferin too has picked up the pace. You can certainly see how the collapse in the stock market effected Real Estate activity in Nov and Dec 2008.





Orangeville has seen a rise in sales over $300,000. Dufferin has picked up as well with higher priced sales in May and June. Erin sale prices are below the year to date average $401,853 for May and June.




Looking at the Market Performance graphs it becomes obvious that there are many more Listings than Sales. Orangeville 34 % of listings sold in June, 1 of every 3 listings, is selling and that has been very consistent for 2009. Caledon 43% of listings sold in June. The listing inventory has declined from 333 in April to 253 in June 2009. Dufferin 18% and Erin 20%. Both Dufferin and Erin have high inventory and fewer sales. 1 in 5 homes is selling.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
Pricing, as always, is key to effecting a sale. In the best markets, there are always over-priced listings on the market that do not sell. In 2009 Buyers are very savvy and conscious of the economy, global stock markets, job security etc. The phenomenal interest rates have certainly helped fuel the Real Estate market. Traditionally market activity falls off somewhat in July and August, though it appears that July will record excellent activity.
  State of the Market May 2009 -By Margorie Grime June 17, 2009
I am often asked, “How is the market?” To explain the market in terms of properties sold, please consider the following:
PERCENTAGE OF LISTINGS SOLD

In good markets it often appears that all properties are selling. Take note from above, that even in the exceptional market of 2007, in Orangeville and Caledon ONLY 31% of listings actually sold. Dufferin County sales (includes Shelburne and Grand Valley and all the townships: Mono, Amaranth…) in 2009 are similar to 2008 (except Orangeville).
[These statistics are calculated using the # of sales and the # of listings from the Toronto Real Estate Board. The # of listings recorded does not reflect those properties that are listed then relisted - so the actual percentage of listings sold may be marginally higher.]
HOW MANY PROPERTIES SELL PER YEAR

2007 was a banner year for Real Estate where the highest level of sales was recorded in almost all districts. 2008, as you can see, was a drop – though not as precipitous as the stock markets of 2008. Buyers stayed home particularly in October, November and December. 2009 (if sales continue at the same rate as the first 5 months) will see some recovery from 2008.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? We at the Grime Team are mirroring our exceptional year of 2007, so, for us, the market is great. It is great for Buyers and Sellers as well. The properties that are selling are those that are priced competitively. PRICING a property correctly is critical in effecting a sale. Buyers are more price conscious than ever before. With Mortgage Interest Rates at an all time low, Buyers are still wanting PROOF of GOOD VALUE - a direct result of the 2008 fallout of the financial markets.

State of the Market April 2009 -By Margorie Grime May 14, 2009



Spring is here and things are looking up in the Real Estate Market! As you can see from the chart the number of sales is increasing each month and there are more home for Buyers to choose from in Orangeville and Caledon.
In Caledon and Dufferin the ratio of sales-to-listings is on the rise! While the sales to listings ratio compared to April 2008 has decreased, (from 58% in 2008 to 30% in 2009), in Orangeville, it is steadily rising each month of 2009. With low interest rates and an active market, the market appears to be recovering.
Based on Statistics from the Toronto Real Estate Board for single family dwellings

State of the Market March 2009 -By Margorie Grime April 14, 2009
March 2009 home sales in Orangeville were 55 vs 54 in 2008. The big difference being the number of listings; there were 68% more listings in 2009, 189 vs 112 in 2008. Home sales have been driven by price conscious Buyers and record low interest rates. The First Time Buyer has resurfaced. Buyers are looking for well-priced properties that reflect perceived market conditions: i.e. 5-10% drop from 2008 prices.

In a perfect market the average price and median price (the middle price) are the same. The space between these lines reflect that there have been more higher priced or lower priced sales.
Based on Statistics from the Toronto Real Estate Board for single family dwellings
 Good Times or Great Times? -By Dwight Trafford The Mortgage Centre 519-942-3333 March 31, 2009
Tough times... or great times?
I guess it depends on which side of the credit fence you find yourself. The first-time homebuyer can purchase a new home that will cost a little less than it would have 6 months ago, finance it at a historic low interest rate, receive a reduction on land transfer tax, and a tax credit. Not bad!
The rest of us can buy a car at 75% of last year's price, fill the tank for 30% less than cost of the same time last spring, refinance our mortgage at bargain basement rates, and renovate our home with a government grant. Still not bad!
I don't know about you, but my glass is half full.... and getting fuller.

State of the Market: February 2009 -By Margorie Grime March 11, 2009
We have just had our awards banquet and once again, thanks to you, The Grime Team received top awards for 2008. A very big THANK YOU to YOU—who send your family and friends to us. This is the very biggest compliment you can give us and we truly appreciate your support! We also thank Lamoine, Vanessa, Al, Mel and Donna, who work behind the scenes to make your move as effortless as it can possibly be.
We are now working diligently on our 2009 year. We are having a great year thus far and we look forward to you assistance! We are never too busy to look after anyone you send our way! Friends, family, co-workers...
We have been very busy with Sellers and Buyers! One of our best first 76 days of the year. It is a great time in the real estate market if you are realistic about price. Interest rates are now 4.19% for a 5 year mortgage ($100,000 @ 4.29% - 25 year am. Payments $537/mo)
Sellers have to be very realistically priced and adjust price as time moves forward. Buyers are expecting to get a discount over last years prices. Buyers are very cautious and want to know they are getting good value.
FIRST TIME BUYERS. If you know of someone renting, this is an exceptional time to buy. Discounted prices and fantastic mortgage rates. The best in over 45 years! Have them call us and we will provide them with our Buyer package and educate them on the reality of the real estate market.

STATE OF THE MARKET January 2009 What is Happening in the ORANGEVILLE Real Estate Market?
-By Margorie Grime February 10, 2009
The Average Selling Price in Orangeville increased from $246,143 in 2005 to $285,809 in December 2008 (see below chart), this is a 3.8% increase per year over the 4-year period.

Since and during the stock markets and world economy shakedown in November and December 2008, we are experiencing fewer sales and declining prices. As of January 31st, 2009 we have experienced 30% fewer sales than January 2008. There were 87 listings in Orangeville during January 2008 and as of January 31st there were 186. This is a 113% increase. Right now Buyers are very cautious and the properties that are selling are where the Sellers are realistic and motivated. There is presently a 6.6 month supply of homes on the market given current sales, making it a Buyers market.
With interest rates at an all time low*, and plenty of well-priced properties with motivated sellers, it is an excellent time to buy a new home or upgrade to a larger one. If you have any questions please give me a call.
(*Qualified Borrowers can get a 5-year mortgage for 4.5%.)
Based on Statistics from the Toronto Real Estate Board for single family dwellings
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